How Has Projected Medicaid Spending and Enrollment Changed Since Passage of the 2025 Reconciliation Law?

CBO’s latest projections of Medicaid spending and enrollment from February 2026 show how enrollment and spending are expected to change over the next decade, accounting for the historic policy changes and their expected reductions in future federal Medicaid spending, as well as other economic and technical changes. This policy watch compares CBO’s February 2026 projections…

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Decoding Medicare Advantage Coding Intensity

In recent years, federal payments to Medicare Advantage plans, and how they are adjusted for enrollee health status, have come under increased scrutiny. This brief answers key questions about coding intensity, recent steps taken by CMS to address the impact of coding on payment, the effects on Medicare beneficiaries, and other proposals to improve Medicare…

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What’s missing from CBO scoring in health?

That is the topic of a JAMA Health Forum article by my USC colleagues Dana Goldman and Erin Trish. In it, the note that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) does good work, but the scope of their analysis is limited. CBO only estimates the impact on policies on government budgets; CBO’s remit does not evaluate…

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